I started thinking about how to measure if trainer is in form or not. As I already determine if a run was a good or not, why not use this for all of trainers horses and not only per individual horse.
So, I calculated two different measures in similar way as suitability score. One with score since the beginning of my dataset (2012) called Tform and one for 20 previous starts of trainers horses, Tform20. Idea was that if Tform20 was higher than all time Tform then trainer would be considered to be in form and if it was lower trainer would be considered to be out of form. Tform rating has range from -100 to +100.
Below is a chart showing strike rate based on Tfrom and for different rating ranges. Included is line for all, only those considered in form and those considered to be out of form.
Interestingly there is pretty steep drop at top end of the scale while for most of the time strike rate increases rather linearilly as Tform rating increases. And as planned, in form trainers have slightly higher strike rate almost throughout the range.
Let’s see if situation changes when we use Tform20 as the base rating.
Interesting. In form trainers don’t differ that much from average strike rate for given rating range and out of form trainers perform really erratically.
One reason could be that I have only two years worth of data here, 2013 and 2014. I need to see how this develops.
In last chart let’s look at how many runs there were in each rating range for both of the ratings.