Trainer consistency per lay off range
So far I have been using days since last run on per horse basis. But for a while now I have wanted to explore that further. Article in old Smartsig sparked an idea (again!). In issue 9.08 from August 2002 (page 30) there was an article about quick return trainers, ie. trainers who have been succesful with horses that return to action within 7 days.
But I didn’t want to look only quick returners but all different day ranges. Ofcourse there are hundreds different number of days that horse can return after so I needed to group them somehow. To get some kind of idea how the runs are grouped I took data from 2012-2014 and divided them evenly to 6 groups. This lead to some interlap between certain dates and grouping was also a bit counterintuitive. For that reason I ended up with almost but not quite even grouping as follows.
|1 - 7||1|
|8 - 14||2|
|15 - 21||3|
|22 - 28||4|
|28 - 50||5|
|51 - 200||6|
After determining group for each run in my database I calculated two values for each run by comparing trainers success with that Days since-group. First, Suitability Score by comparing ratio of good and bad runs and second strikerate for that trainer in that Days since-group.
Hypothesis was that higher the suitability score or strikerate in a group then higher the strikerate these horses would have. And this was true to certain extent. Two charts below from 2013 and 2014 show strike rates on a range -100 to 100 for suitability score and 0 to 100 for strike rate.
Interestingly strikerate drops as as we get to top end of the range as was the case with trainer form as well. This might partially be due to smaller number of samples.