And now something different

I mostly concentrate on just horse racing but I have been intrigued by baseball betting right from the beginning of my betting career. I think it is combination of statistical emphasis in the game, one of my first system tests and one of the best betting books I have read.

Anyway, new baseball season is looming in the horizon and they are currently wrapping the spring training before commencing season proper and I wanted to have piece of the action. I am not skilled enough in baseball betting to make my own selections but as a result of my Picks Buffet test I have a hypothesis that I wish to test.

I am of opinion that on any given season some teams are easier to predict than others and this information can be used to determine confidence level for a given selection and be used as basis for staking.

What I am going to do is utilize free picks and build a spreadsheet where I track how well teams are predicted. As a source of tips I am going to use free tips released at Zcode System website. Zcode is website that gives out predictions on multiple sports. It is on the expensive side with monthly subscription running at 198$ so you would definately need sizable bankroll if you were to subscribe. I am not a member myself and I haven’t seen what is inside but what can be found from sales page there is quite a lot of content included. For my purposes I am interested in the free picks they publish every day and even though they don’t publicly predict all matches I get 4-6 selections every day which works for me at this point.

I have tracked their selections almost from the beginning of the spring training and before todays games results for 1pt flat stakes show a profit of 8.80 points, strike rate of 58.02% and ROT of 10.87%. So far there are two teams left with 100% success rate, St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants, several with over 60% rate and some with less than 50% and two with 0% success rate.

When the season begins I am going to use these as confidence factors to decide stakes per match of 1 to 3 points and there is going to be a cutoff point where game is going to be a no bet. Let’s see how this goes.

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