Baseball season is over and we are on profit!

Long time and no posts and I am sorry for that. Been busy with moving to a different country and such, occupies the day quite a lot. But while I was not writing the MLB regular season came to the end so this post will wrap up couple of the final months as well as complete stats for the whole season.

Long story short, August was a decent month. Small profit to adjusted stakes.

 All selectionsAdjusted flat stakesAdjusted flat stakes
Selections2118585
Winners1244949
Staked2118887
Strikerate58.77%57.65%57.65%
P/L19.355.683.68
ROT9.17%6.69%4.23%

September was the worst month of the whole season with a abysmal 48% strike rate. In addition to that I missed one whole week in during the September as I was on vacation and the internet connection was not consistent enough to be able to follow the bets while there. In September results is also included couple of the October days that wrap up the regular season.

 All selectionsAdjusted flat stakesAdjusted stakes
Selections1887171
Winners923434
Staked1887172
Strikerate48.94%47.89%47.89%
P/L-17.77-3.16-4.16
ROT-9.45%-4.45%-5.78%

And finally the complete season results. Overall a slight profit. And quick p-test shows that there is some statistical validity in the results as well. That is pretty well done in my opinion from free picks. I did some back testing and it would been best to use 4.5% of bank as one point stake compounded daily with these results and end up with almost tripled bank after the season. So I think this s a pretty good review of potential of Zcode picks.

 All selectionsAdjusted flat stakesAdjusted stakes
Selections1194536536
Winners639293293
Staked1194536593
Strikerate53.52%54.66%54.66%
P/L18.8021.8423.19
ROT1.57%3.91%4.08%

Results for July Baseball bets

Again one more month has passed and baseball season has turned towards the end, four months behind and three to go. July included all star game break of almost a week which meant a slightly lower number of selections last month.

Anyway, we are back on track and adjusted stakes seem to do the trick, althoug all bets were on profit as well in July.

 All selectionsAdjusted flat stakesAdjusted stakes
Selections1918888
Winners1035151
Staked1918892
Strikerate53.93%57.95%57.95%
P/L8.5411.1612.86
ROT4.47%12.68%13.98%

I think following chart is quite informative, it shows cumulative P/L on daily level for all bets as well as adjusted stakes.

And we can also see that overall, adjusted stakes have creeped ahead of all selections in early July. This was mainly due to dry spell starting around 22nd of June where all selections P/L dropped to just little more than 6 points. Adjusted stakes suffered as well, but not nearly as much as all selections. Overall adjusted stakes are currently standing at around 5% return on turnover while all selections are at little over 2% return.

All in all, it would seem that Zcode is offering some pretty decent selections and I have started thinking that maybe I should do similar test run with NHL hockey bets during the wintertime.

June Baseball results

Tables turned last month, unadjusted bets made similar loss as adjusted stakes the month before. Adjusted stakes on the other hand made a small profit and recouped some of the losses made in May.

 All selectionsAdjusted flat stakesAdjusted variable stakes
Selections2029292
Winners1035353
Staked2029293
Strikerate50.99%57.61%57.61%
P/L-9,875.794.56
ROT-4.89%6.23%4.96%

Out of curiosity I drew following chart where evolving strikerates per team are drawn since early April. Quite a big difference between top and bottom ends of the scale.

Results for May baseball bets

Time to review how month of May was when it came to my baseball betting. April ended on a high note and I had high expectations for May. Unfortunately thas was not to be and May was losing month for my adjusted stakes. This time around plain picks worked better and were actually pretty consistent when compared to April results, return on turnover was almost the same in both months.

 All selectionsAdjusted flat stakesAdjusted variable stakes
Selections220108108
Winners1205555
Staked220123123
Strikerate54.55%50.93%50.93%
P/L10.23-12.8-3.21
ROT4.62%-10.41%-2.97%

Below is a chart showing P/L movement since the beginning to the end of May.

 

Baseball season is here

Spring training is over and season proper will start today with one game only and rest of the teams follow suit tomorrow. As described in my earlier post I have been collecting data during the spring training to use as basis for staking and results have been good, maybe even too good as 121 bets showed a profit of 12.73 points and strike rate of 57.85% for a ROT of 10.52%. Average odds were 1.913. Doing a quick p-test shows that this is not yet statistically significant so more bets would be needed to verify that.

But I am happy so far and going on what happens is that I will continue following the free selections from Zcode and using the success rate for bet on a teams to determine the stake size for each match. If the level of confidence is too low no bet is made and stake sizes will be between 1 and 7 points and most of them propably end up being in the 1-3 point range.

One possible problem I have seen so far is that Zcode doesn’t publish all the free picks at the same time but staggered based on start times. This wasn’t a problems during early parts of the spring training as most games started at either 13:05 or at 16:05. But regular season games are spread out more and start as late as 22:05 at night. Selections are made public roughly 4 hours before the game time so I need to check the picks several times during the day to catch them all and one some days might miss them due to other commitments. But, they are free, so can’t really complain.

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