A while back I was looking through results of my bayesian forecasting system and noticed that my first and second rated selections finish either first or second pretty consistently. About 30% of a time and pretty much regardless of race type or number of runners (unless really high number of runners).
Naturally betting exactas came into mind and I wanted to test if there was any profit to be found from these. Unfortunately I don’t have tote results in handy database so I had to approach testing this manually. For this reason I restricted this to only UK races in classes 2-5 and number of runners in race to 4-12. This way I got roughly four suitable races per day to check results from. For each race I paper played two bets, 1-2 and 2-1 so two points worth of bets per race.
I now have data for the past two months and over 186 races I have had 55 winning exactas for a strike rate of almost 30%. Unfortunately profits weren’t there, loss of 27.4 points. I am not willing to give up yet as class 5 seems to be making profits as well as shorter distances, meaning turf and all weather flat races.
I am going to continue papertrading atleast over the next month to see if there is anything worth backing here.