Improving Beaten favourites -system

A while back I was reading through old Smartsig issues. One of the features there is simple to operate systems called KISS’s. In issue 0701 there was a mention of a system about beaten favourites, but it didn’t haven any data to back it up. Long story short, sounded interesting and wanted to give it a go.

Rules of the system are simple, back any beaten favourite which improved between second to last time out and last time out.

I took data from 2012 and 2013 and results are presented below.

n3786
Winners552
Strikerate14.58%
Average odds22.40
Median odds8.96
P/L95.37
Return on Turnover %2.52%
Std deviation4.10
t1.16
p0.1226

A small profit over two years, but according to p-value, there is still over 12% chance that theses results are due to luck alone. And it can be considered that results are not statistically significant. Chart below show how bank shrinks and grows throughout the selections. Over two year the selections are mostly on making losses.