New month – New SmartSigger

By lhourahane profile (Flickr) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons


It is March and Cheltenham is upon us. Coincindentally this months issue of SmartSigger is titled Cheltenham Special  in preparation for the festival. Main point being article about key trends for each race over the four day festival.

My own article for the month is about beaten favourites and if there is any money to be made with that information. Most interesting finding for me was the big difference between top and bottom success rates for trainers when their beaten favourites run again. For full list you need to subscribe the magazine but below I present top and bottom five trainers based on strikerates.

 

 

 

Top 5

TrainerWinnersRunnersSR%P/LROT%VSPVSP%
J Ferguson257035.71%53.6676.66%11.4133.91%
D Lanigan175034.00%45.1090.20%2.8515.25%
A O'Brien5619528.72%-34.12-17.50%-5.20-4.10%
W Mullins8329428.23%21.847.43%-6.43-3.77%
N Henderson5921127.96%16.167.66%3.113.07%

Bottom 5

TrainerWinnersRunnersSR%P/LROT%VSPVSP%
M Dods8829.76%-42.91-52.33%-8.45-44.05%
H Candy5539.43%-36.09-68.10%-3.76-24.06%
R Harris4666.06%-20.45-30.99%-2.71-37.34%
Mrs R Carr3545.56%-37.74-69.88%-6.29-63.85%
Richard Guest51134.42%-72.53-64.18%-7.47-55.23%

 

Improving Beaten favourites -system

A while back I was reading through old Smartsig issues. One of the features there is simple to operate systems called KISS’s. In issue 0701 there was a mention of a system about beaten favourites, but it didn’t haven any data to back it up. Long story short, sounded interesting and wanted to give it a go.

Rules of the system are simple, back any beaten favourite which improved between second to last time out and last time out.

I took data from 2012 and 2013 and results are presented below.

n3786
Winners552
Strikerate14.58%
Average odds22.40
Median odds8.96
P/L95.37
Return on Turnover %2.52%
Std deviation4.10
t1.16
p0.1226

A small profit over two years, but according to p-value, there is still over 12% chance that theses results are due to luck alone. And it can be considered that results are not statistically significant. Chart below show how bank shrinks and grows throughout the selections. Over two year the selections are mostly on making losses.