Speed figures in All Weather

We are having a discussion at Race Advisor forums about different speed figures provided in Racing Dossier and their relative strength in choosing contenders in All Weather races. I for one was telling my opinions just based on hunch and I wanted some data to confirm my own thoughts.

I looked at handicap All Weather races ran over 6 furlongs (rounded to full furlongs) with a field size of 8 to 10 runners. Data was collected from years 2012 to 2014.

I looked at three rankings based on four different speed figures which are

  • SHorPro – Horses projected speed rating in todays race
  • SpdFigLR – Speed figure earned last time out
  • ShorAvG – Average speed rating on todays going
  • ShorAvD – Average speed rating at todays race distance

I used ranking based on these ratings and not the raw numbers, so top rated would be ranked 1 on so on. To make the charts more readable I grouped the rankings to three groups, top 3, mid 4 and bottom 3.

First chart shows strike rates for those three groups combined from all of the tracks.

We can see that there are interesting variations between the tracks. But one ought to bear in mind that as data is only from three years there is relatively low number of data points (complete dataset was only a little over 3000 runs).