One problem I have with (or rather my way of analysing races) festivals is that I often don’t have enough data to go by. My database extends only to beginning of 2012 and this means that I might not have enough reference data to feel comfortable making selections. Depending on circumstances but correct going – purse class combination might not have happened often enough.
Partly for that reason I only have one bet at Ascot tomorrow. My system highlighted couple other favourites as well, like Sole Power and Gleneagles but Sole Power I am going to skip due to lack of data and Gleneagles due to low odds. So I am going to go only with:
EDIT: Just read a good preview for the day from GeeGeez and Matt Bisogno agrees with my Solow pick. You can find his analysis from here.
Time to review how month of May was when it came to my baseball betting. April ended on a high note and I had high expectations for May. Unfortunately thas was not to be and May was losing month for my adjusted stakes. This time around plain picks worked better and were actually pretty consistent when compared to April results, return on turnover was almost the same in both months.
| ||All selections||Adjusted flat stakes||Adjusted variable stakes
Below is a chart showing P/L movement since the beginning to the end of May.
Bad performance continues as we goe 0 from 3.
Madame Chiang LOSE (5) @ 10.5
Homage LOSE (14) @ 8.85
Tomorrow we have two one point singles:
15:45 Pack Together @ 6
17:20 Dawn Missile @ 5
We are off to a losing start. Onwards and all that.
Astaire LOSE (6) @ 9.03
Tomorrow I am going with two bets, both as one point singles and also combined into E/W double. I haven’t done much E/W doubles, but they seem to be all the rage and I am ready to hop on to that bandwagon.
14:40 Madame Chiang @ 8.5
15:45 Homage @ 10.0
I thought about writing a wrapup after Chester, but there wasn’t much to write about. All in all my top rated had only 2 winners of which I managed to pick the other one. And due to final days first selection being a non runner we ended up with minor profit.
Onwards then towards York Dante Festival and day 1 selections. This time it seems that I have more reference data compared to Chester last week so I expect to see more selections this time around. That being said, we start with only one selection on the first day. Which is a one point win bet.