Neural Network Diary #1: The Beginning

For a while now I have been planning on combining some ideas that I have used in the past and things that I have wanted to learn more about. And I have decided to write a diary of sorts which would serve a dual purpose of documenting this for my own benefit and potentially acting as a tutorial of sorts for others interested in pursuing similar ends.

My plan is pretty simple. I plan to create a neural network and output of that network would be further adjusted with Monte Carlo simulation. End results of this combination should be most likely winner and likelihood for that so that in addition to selection a value price would be calculated for it as well.

I am going to concentrate on 5-7 furlong All Weather races ran in UK and Ireland. Idea is to structure network in a way that pair of runners is modeled as one row of data (This is lifted from old Smartsig article, reference to which I need to dig up). Winner of future race is predicted then by comparing all pairs in the race and finding out which one wins most of these virtual duels.

This is also where I plan to utilize Monte Carlo simulation, so instead of one run through the network I am going to do it ten thousand times, or whatever figures seems like reasonable for the use when I get to that point.

As I am basically learning by doing here I welcome all comments and suggestions any reader might have.