Baseball season is here

Spring training is over and season proper will start today with one game only and rest of the teams follow suit tomorrow. As described in my earlier post I have been collecting data during the spring training to use as basis for staking and results have been good, maybe even too good as 121 bets showed a profit of 12.73 points and strike rate of 57.85% for a ROT of 10.52%. Average odds were 1.913. Doing a quick p-test shows that this is not yet statistically significant so more bets would be needed to verify that.

But I am happy so far and going on what happens is that I will continue following the free selections from Zcode and using the success rate for bet on a teams to determine the stake size for each match. If the level of confidence is too low no bet is made and stake sizes will be between 1 and 7 points and most of them propably end up being in the 1-3 point range.

One possible problem I have seen so far is that Zcode doesn’t publish all the free picks at the same time but staggered based on start times. This wasn’t a problems during early parts of the spring training as most games started at either 13:05 or at 16:05. But regular season games are spread out more and start as late as 22:05 at night. Selections are made public roughly 4 hours before the game time so I need to check the picks several times during the day to catch them all and one some days might miss them due to other commitments. But, they are free, so can’t really complain.

And now something different

I mostly concentrate on just horse racing but I have been intrigued by baseball betting right from the beginning of my betting career. I think it is combination of statistical emphasis in the game, one of my first system tests and one of the best betting books I have read.

Anyway, new baseball season is looming in the horizon and they are currently wrapping the spring training before commencing season proper and I wanted to have piece of the action. I am not skilled enough in baseball betting to make my own selections but as a result of my Picks Buffet test I have a hypothesis that I wish to test.

I am of opinion that on any given season some teams are easier to predict than others and this information can be used to determine confidence level for a given selection and be used as basis for staking.

What I am going to do is utilize free picks and build a spreadsheet where I track how well teams are predicted. As a source of tips I am going to use free tips released at Zcode System website. Zcode is website that gives out predictions on multiple sports. It is on the expensive side with monthly subscription running at 198$ so you would definately need sizable bankroll if you were to subscribe. I am not a member myself and I haven’t seen what is inside but what can be found from sales page there is quite a lot of content included. For my purposes I am interested in the free picks they publish every day and even though they don’t publicly predict all matches I get 4-6 selections every day which works for me at this point.

I have tracked their selections almost from the beginning of the spring training and before todays games results for 1pt flat stakes show a profit of 8.80 points, strike rate of 58.02% and ROT of 10.87%. So far there are two teams left with 100% success rate, St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants, several with over 60% rate and some with less than 50% and two with 0% success rate.

When the season begins I am going to use these as confidence factors to decide stakes per match of 1 to 3 points and there is going to be a cutoff point where game is going to be a no bet. Let’s see how this goes.

Dobbing Secrets – Review

Now this is a first one for the blog. A product review is not something I had in mind when starting this blog, but I have had a chance to try out new product called Dobbing Secrets by Michael Wilding and I wanted to write a few words about it.

As the name of the product suggests, it is about style of betting called Double Or Bust. If this is completely new to you I suggest that you take a look at this page at Patternform. But in short it is about betting on horses you expect to shorten in price in running and then laying them at half the odds so that you either double your stake or lose your stake completely.

Dobbing Secrets is delivered as ebook in pdf-format and is accompanied by calculator as an Excel file to help in selection finding. Xlsx-file worked just fine in Libre Office as well. Total length of the book is 51 pages bulk of which is used for examples.

Dobbing Secrets describes simple strategy for finding the selections. While the strategy is simple it does take some effort, I found that depending a bit on number of suitable races it took around half an hour to 45 minutes to cover days racing. This time is further shortened a bit with experience. I am calling it a strategy and not a system as it does involves a decision of ones own and it is not just blindly following set number of rules.

Before reading the book I had heard about dobbing but hadn’t really tried it as I didn’t know where to start from. In that sense the book is good primer on the subject and gives out initial tools to start learning. There are also ways suggested on how to expand once you have the basics nailed down.

As is suggested in the book itself I would also recommend starting with paper trading. Mainly because selection strategy does take some learning. That being said, numerous examples in the book give a good basis for learning by doing.

While the book is not be all end all betting product (which one is?) I can recommend it. I feel that this type of betting is not my cup of tea, mainly because I live in a different timezone and my schedule doesnt’t sync the best with UK racing but I still gained things here and there and a bit different view on races than what I normally have.

Dobbing Secrets is for sale for £47and it can be purchased from HERE.

Disclaimer: That is an affiliate link.

New issue of SmartSigger!

Today marks the day for February issue of SmartSigger magazine. My article this month is about a system where I utilize some Racing Dossier ratings with some of my own creation. Test for that system is ongoing at Race Advisor forums, but so far results have not been quite up to par but I am confident that results will improve.

All in all I think it is well worth a read and if you are not already a subscriber you can get your first month for free to see if the content is such that you wish to read it in the future months as well.

I am also excited about competition Michael Wilding is publishing this month were competitors need to create a system based on given historical dataset. Systems are then matched against test data to see whos system gives the best results. Unfortunately one is only able to participate if you are able to access Race Advisor forums which can only be gained buying any of Michaels products.

I already have few ideas on how to approach the competition and I will write about them here, atleast after the fact when I have seen if results were there 🙂

Improving Beaten favourites -system

A while back I was reading through old Smartsig issues. One of the features there is simple to operate systems called KISS’s. In issue 0701 there was a mention of a system about beaten favourites, but it didn’t haven any data to back it up. Long story short, sounded interesting and wanted to give it a go.

Rules of the system are simple, back any beaten favourite which improved between second to last time out and last time out.

I took data from 2012 and 2013 and results are presented below.

n3786
Winners552
Strikerate14.58%
Average odds22.40
Median odds8.96
P/L95.37
Return on Turnover %2.52%
Std deviation4.10
t1.16
p0.1226

A small profit over two years, but according to p-value, there is still over 12% chance that theses results are due to luck alone. And it can be considered that results are not statistically significant. Chart below show how bank shrinks and grows throughout the selections. Over two year the selections are mostly on making losses.

1 2 3 4