Spring training is over and season proper will start today with one game only and rest of the teams follow suit tomorrow. As described in my earlier post I have been collecting data during the spring training to use as basis for staking and results have been good, maybe even too good as 121 bets showed a profit of 12.73 points and strike rate of 57.85% for a ROT of 10.52%. Average odds were 1.913. Doing a quick p-test shows that this is not yet statistically significant so more bets would be needed to verify that.
But I am happy so far and going on what happens is that I will continue following the free selections from Zcode and using the success rate for bet on a teams to determine the stake size for each match. If the level of confidence is too low no bet is made and stake sizes will be between 1 and 7 points and most of them propably end up being in the 1-3 point range.
One possible problem I have seen so far is that Zcode doesn’t publish all the free picks at the same time but staggered based on start times. This wasn’t a problems during early parts of the spring training as most games started at either 13:05 or at 16:05. But regular season games are spread out more and start as late as 22:05 at night. Selections are made public roughly 4 hours before the game time so I need to check the picks several times during the day to catch them all and one some days might miss them due to other commitments. But, they are free, so can’t really complain.