Expanding to Twitter

I have extended my media empire to Twitter! Have been doing it for a few weeks now and realized that I haven’t actually mentioned it here at all. Well, you can find my betting related tweets at @racealyst.

This is still a bit of a learning process as I try to figure out the best way to use this additional outlet. But one thing that I might repeat is something that I did ad hoc today, live tweeting tips as races unfold. This wasn’t something that I planned on doing, but planetary bodies aligned and I got the idea today before the 18:40 race at Wolverhampton and proceeded to share my selections until the last race of the day.

Laura B 2nd.

Flicka’s Boy won @ 4.5.

First Rebellion 7th.

Dialogue 4th.

Smart Motive 2nd.


Ninepointsixthree 7th.


Moulin Rouge 5th.

This was surprisingly fun to do. And while doing this I got an idea of challenging some other twitter tipster for a evening tip battle some night in the future, that could be entertaining. Let’s see what happens.

Fun as this was, it wasn’t exactly profitable with only one winner from 7 bets and a loss of -2.5 points.

Results after one week of baseball

Below you can see results after first week of baseball bets. Table has three columns, first one shows the results for all selections available from Zcode, second and third column share selection criteria (confidence level over 40%) but second one is flat stakes and third one to adjusted stakes.

I included second column to act as a reference to see if my adjusted staking is of any value. And based on this small sample it does seem to have value, results are better by all metrics. Strikerate is really good I think, I would expect it to hover at slightly under 60%

 All selectionsAdjusted flat stakesAdjusted variable stakes
Selections412424
Winners231515
Staked231538
Strikerate56.10%62.50%62.50%
P/L8.94
6.9116.02
ROT21.80%28.81%42.16%

I might make this kind of status check a regular feature. Let’s see about that next week.

My Grand National outsiders

For Grand National I have decided to go with no less than seven selections, all with odds well in excess of 20/1.

These selections are:

  1. Portrait King
  2. Royale Knight
  3. Godsmejudge
  4. Pineau De Re
  5. Ely Brown
  6. Rebel Rebellion
  7. The Rainbow Hunter

Lets see how this goes.

Baseball season is here

Spring training is over and season proper will start today with one game only and rest of the teams follow suit tomorrow. As described in my earlier post I have been collecting data during the spring training to use as basis for staking and results have been good, maybe even too good as 121 bets showed a profit of 12.73 points and strike rate of 57.85% for a ROT of 10.52%. Average odds were 1.913. Doing a quick p-test shows that this is not yet statistically significant so more bets would be needed to verify that.

But I am happy so far and going on what happens is that I will continue following the free selections from Zcode and using the success rate for bet on a teams to determine the stake size for each match. If the level of confidence is too low no bet is made and stake sizes will be between 1 and 7 points and most of them propably end up being in the 1-3 point range.

One possible problem I have seen so far is that Zcode doesn’t publish all the free picks at the same time but staggered based on start times. This wasn’t a problems during early parts of the spring training as most games started at either 13:05 or at 16:05. But regular season games are spread out more and start as late as 22:05 at night. Selections are made public roughly 4 hours before the game time so I need to check the picks several times during the day to catch them all and one some days might miss them due to other commitments. But, they are free, so can’t really complain.

Some thoughts about money management

It seems that no blog about betting is complete without atleast one post about money management. And this is just that article for this blog. There is great deal written about subject and Google search looking for most important rules finds tens of millions of pages. And if we expand out from searching just betting money management to also include financial trading money management we find even more stuff to read. So there is bunch of stuff written already, what I am trying to do here is to highlight the stuff that I consider most important.

First and foremost, use only money you can afford to lose. Or as Dr Bob says:

Find an amount that you can afford to lose over the course of a season that would still enable you to live the lifestyle you wish to live without stressing too much about it.

 

I don’t know if this can be stressed enough but if you can’t adhere to this rule then don’t bet at all.

Now that we got that out of the way we can move along. Next order of business is to keep track of your bets, all of them. If you don’t keep accurate records of your betting patterns you can’t know if you are making correct decisions and emotions can’t dictate your decision making too easily. This is especially important if you are thinking about increasing your stake size. If you are continously changing that stake size you will run into troubles but on the other hand if you never change your stake and if you are making profit then you might not be employing your capital in the most optimal way. If you are betting on horses and you are not tracking your bets and you don’t know where to start, you could take a look at this example tracking sheet I made a while back.

Third and final thing in this article is consistency in your staking. If you decide on how you are going to determine your stake, be it flat stakes or Kelly criterion or something completely different then stick to it. Increase your stakes only after you have met conditions you have set earlier. Good example about what can happen in bad scenario is given by above linked Dr Bob:

On Saturday I give out 5 Best Bets that are all rated that same, 3 of which are in the morning and 2 at night. One client wagers $200 each on the 3 morning Best Bets and all 3 of them are winners. This client, feeling like I’m hot, doubles his bets for the 2 night games, wagering $400 on each only to have both of them lose. Another client with the same bankroll plays all 5 games at $200 each, as he should. Both clients won 3 plays while losing 2, but the first client is down $280 (wins $600 in the morning and loses $880 by doubling up on that evening’s two plays), while the second client is up $160.

 

On Sunday I give out 4 morning games as Best Bets and 3 afternoon games plus the Sunday night game is a Best Bet (let’s assume that all of the Best Bets have the same rating). The first client goes back to his $200 per game wagers and plays my 4 morning games while the second client does the same, betting $200 on all 4 of the Best Bets. Unfortunately, those Best Bets go 1-3 and both clients are down $460 in the morning. I have now lost 5 of my last 6 games, and the first client (now down $740) backs off and decides not to bet my 3 afternoon games. The second client (down $300) bets all 3 games at $200 each, sticking to his plan.

 

All 3 afternoon Best Bets are winners and I head into the Sunday night Best Bet with a respectable 7-5 Best Bet record so far for the weekend (3-2 on Saturday and 4-3 so far on Sunday). The first client (still down $740) decides to jump back in and bet my Sunday night Best Bet for his standard $200 and the second client (now up $300) once again wagers $200 on that Best Bet. The Sunday night Best Bet is a winner and I am now 8-5 for the weekend on my Best Bets following Sunday’s action. However, the first client is just 5-5 on those Best Bets because he was afraid of betting the 3 Sunday afternoon Best Bets after losing in the morning. Actually, 5-5 is no disaster but because of doubling up on his bets for the 2 losses on Saturday night, he is down $540. The second client bet the same on each and every Best Bet I released and he is now up $500 for the weekend.

 

As it turns out, I also have a Monday night Best Bet. The first client realizes that I have no won 4 straight NFL Best Bets and this is his last chance to get even for the weekend, so he bets to win $550 (risking $605). The second client also realizes that I’ve won 4 straight Best Bets, but he sticks to the plan and wagers his standard $200. The Monday night game turns out to be a losing bet and the first client ends the weekend down $1145 while the second client, betting $200 on each and every Best Bet, is up a modest $280 on my Best Bet record of 8-6 (57%) for the weekend.

 

That longish quote ends this article. Those are three, in my opinion, the most important topics when it comes to money management. And we didn’t even cover bankroll size and stake size yet. Maybe I need to come back to this topic in future post.