Back to drawing board

I ran a system test for my bayesian system at Race Advisor forums for a few months and few thousand selections. It became clear that even though I was profitable it depended too much on the luck factor.

My system still seems to favor one selection too much which means that my odds line is not accurate as on many occasions my top ranked is at odds of close to 1.0 and then rest are way overboard. It is not uncommon to see odds of few thousand for the lower ranked runners.

Thus, I am going to rebuild and rethink my likelyhoodratios and in addition add a couple new ones as well. I am also in the process of redoing my good run neural network and that means that I am going to recalculate all of the ratings that depend on that. Meaning most of the  Suitability Score-ratings of which I have added quite a few.

I also plan to add better view, maybe chart of some sort to visualize which likelyhood ratios are the ones that make certain horse top ranked selection.

Dobbing Secrets – Review

Now this is a first one for the blog. A product review is not something I had in mind when starting this blog, but I have had a chance to try out new product called Dobbing Secrets by Michael Wilding and I wanted to write a few words about it.

As the name of the product suggests, it is about style of betting called Double Or Bust. If this is completely new to you I suggest that you take a look at this page at Patternform. But in short it is about betting on horses you expect to shorten in price in running and then laying them at half the odds so that you either double your stake or lose your stake completely.

Dobbing Secrets is delivered as ebook in pdf-format and is accompanied by calculator as an Excel file to help in selection finding. Xlsx-file worked just fine in Libre Office as well. Total length of the book is 51 pages bulk of which is used for examples.

Dobbing Secrets describes simple strategy for finding the selections. While the strategy is simple it does take some effort, I found that depending a bit on number of suitable races it took around half an hour to 45 minutes to cover days racing. This time is further shortened a bit with experience. I am calling it a strategy and not a system as it does involves a decision of ones own and it is not just blindly following set number of rules.

Before reading the book I had heard about dobbing but hadn’t really tried it as I didn’t know where to start from. In that sense the book is good primer on the subject and gives out initial tools to start learning. There are also ways suggested on how to expand once you have the basics nailed down.

As is suggested in the book itself I would also recommend starting with paper trading. Mainly because selection strategy does take some learning. That being said, numerous examples in the book give a good basis for learning by doing.

While the book is not be all end all betting product (which one is?) I can recommend it. I feel that this type of betting is not my cup of tea, mainly because I live in a different timezone and my schedule doesnt’t sync the best with UK racing but I still gained things here and there and a bit different view on races than what I normally have.

Dobbing Secrets is for sale for £47and it can be purchased from HERE.

Disclaimer: That is an affiliate link.

Trainer consistency per lay off range

So far I have been using days since last run on per horse basis. But for a while now I have wanted to explore that further. Article in old Smartsig sparked an idea (again!). In issue 9.08 from August 2002 (page 30) there was an article about quick return trainers, ie. trainers who have been succesful with horses that return to action within 7 days.

But I didn’t want to look only quick returners but all different day ranges. Ofcourse there are hundreds different number of days that horse can return after so I needed to group them somehow. To get some kind of idea how the runs are grouped I took data from 2012-2014  and divided them evenly to 6 groups. This lead to some interlap between certain dates and grouping was also a bit counterintuitive. For that reason I ended up with almost but not quite even grouping as follows.

Days sinceGroup
No data-1
00
1 - 71
8 - 142
15 - 213
22 - 284
28 - 505
51 - 2006
200+7

After determining group for each run in my database I calculated two values for each run by comparing trainers success with that Days since-group. First, Suitability Score by comparing ratio of good and bad runs and second strikerate for that trainer in that Days since-group.

Hypothesis was that higher the suitability score or strikerate in a group then higher the strikerate these horses would have. And this was true to certain extent. Two charts below from 2013 and 2014 show strike rates on a range -100 to 100 for suitability score and 0 to 100 for strike rate.

Interestingly strikerate drops as as we get to top end of the range as was the case with trainer form as well. This might partially be due to smaller number of samples.

 

New issue of SmartSigger!

Today marks the day for February issue of SmartSigger magazine. My article this month is about a system where I utilize some Racing Dossier ratings with some of my own creation. Test for that system is ongoing at Race Advisor forums, but so far results have not been quite up to par but I am confident that results will improve.

All in all I think it is well worth a read and if you are not already a subscriber you can get your first month for free to see if the content is such that you wish to read it in the future months as well.

I am also excited about competition Michael Wilding is publishing this month were competitors need to create a system based on given historical dataset. Systems are then matched against test data to see whos system gives the best results. Unfortunately one is only able to participate if you are able to access Race Advisor forums which can only be gained buying any of Michaels products.

I already have few ideas on how to approach the competition and I will write about them here, atleast after the fact when I have seen if results were there 🙂