We are having a discussion at Race Advisor forums about different speed figures provided in Racing Dossier and their relative strength in choosing contenders in All Weather races. I for one was telling my opinions just based on hunch and I wanted some data to confirm my own thoughts.
I looked at handicap All Weather races ran over 6 furlongs (rounded to full furlongs) with a field size of 8 to 10 runners. Data was collected from years 2012 to 2014.
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I looked at three rankings based on four different speed figures which are
- SHorPro – Horses projected speed rating in todays race
- SpdFigLR – Speed figure earned last time out
- ShorAvG – Average speed rating on todays going
- ShorAvD – Average speed rating at todays race distance
I used ranking based on these ratings and not the raw numbers, so top rated would be ranked 1 on so on. To make the charts more readable I grouped the rankings to three groups, top 3, mid 4 and bottom 3.
First chart shows strike rates for those three groups combined from all of the tracks.
We can see that there are interesting variations between the tracks. But one ought to bear in mind that as data is only from three years there is relatively low number of data points (complete dataset was only a little over 3000 runs).
I started thinking about how to measure if trainer is in form or not. As I already determine if a run was a good or not, why not use this for all of trainers horses and not only per individual horse.
So, I calculated two different measures in similar way as suitability score. One with score since the beginning of my dataset (2012) called Tform and one for 20 previous starts of trainers horses, Tform20. Idea was that if Tform20 was higher than all time Tform then trainer would be considered to be in form and if it was lower trainer would be considered to be out of form. Tform rating has range from -100 to +100.
Below is a chart showing strike rate based on Tfrom and for different rating ranges. Included is line for all, only those considered in form and those considered to be out of form.
Interestingly there is pretty steep drop at top end of the scale while for most of the time strike rate increases rather linearilly as Tform rating increases. And as planned, in form trainers have slightly higher strike rate almost throughout the range.
Let’s see if situation changes when we use Tform20 as the base rating.
Interesting. In form trainers don’t differ that much from average strike rate for given rating range and out of form trainers perform really erratically.
One reason could be that I have only two years worth of data here, 2013 and 2014. I need to see how this develops.
In last chart let’s look at how many runs there were in each rating range for both of the ratings.